The Scandal of Infected Blood

The scandal of infected blood affecting people who were given Factor 8 blood products is getting a lot of media coverage. The media love a good sob story. Haemophiliacs were particularly affected because Factor 8 was one of the few treatments available so it was given widely and without much thought to the possible risks. But the products used were mainly from America where blood donors from which the product was obtained often had HIV or Hepatitis C. The latter is a particularly dangerous form of Hepatitis and can lead to death in a few years.

About 10 years ago I was in the Liver Intensive Care Unit at Kings College Hospital and several patients there had a very poor prognosis with HEP C – they were very depressed. That included one person who had acquired the infection from a fight outside a pub – either he had bitten someone with the disease or been bitten by them – I cannot recall which.

Apparently only Hepatitis A or B were known before about the 1960s and apart from HEP C other variants known as D and E are now known. I managed to catch Hepatitis E a few years later probably from eating raw salami when I had a suppressed immune system.

Most people would not even know if they have been infected with HEP E although it can be dangerous for a few people as the symptoms can be very mild. I would not have known if I had not had a blood test for other reasons (as a renal patient). I got a call from the hospital saying I had to go to A&E immediately as I was seriously ill! My ALT blood test for liver function was greater than 1,000 when it should be about 50.  This was disconcerting as I had no symptoms. I spent 12 hours there with no conclusions except I may have been poisoned. With no bed available by 2 o’clock in the morning I discharged myself much against the objections of the hospital doctors.

But a few weeks later one of the renal consultants guessed HEP E was the problem and confirmed it with blood tests. It cleared itself.

More than 30,000 people were infected with HIV and Hepatitis C from 1970 to 1991 by contaminated blood products and transfusions. About 3,000 of them have since died and there are calls for compensation. A report from a Public Inquiry into the scandal should be published today – see https://www.infectedbloodinquiry.org.uk/ . It has been suggested that billions of pounds should be paid to those affected, or their relatives, but should such a massive hole in Government and NHS budgets be made?

I think not. They certainly might deserve an apology but those affected will already get free treatment from the NHS. It is not clear to me, subject to reading the report, that doctors or politicians were reckless or acted maliciously to conceal the evidence that was emerging before the full facts were known.

It is not possible to compensate everyone who suffers from medical problems that affect them. Money does not solve their problems except in rare cases.

Postscript (21/5/2024): I have now read the key parts of the Report from the Infected Blood Inquiry. It was indeed a catalogue of errors, although much of it depends on hindsight. Most of the recommendations make sense including the award of financial compensation for those affected. However the Report seems to avoid the issue of how much and who exactly will quality for that. These are the key questions when spending money on that might undermine treatments for other diseases.

For information on Hepatitis E go here:  https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hepatitis-e-symptoms-transmission-prevention-treatment/ . Avoiding eating raw pork can help and avoid biting people or being bitten!

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Northern Rock Shareholders Action Group Still Active

The Northern Rock campaign to get justice for former shareholders is still active. This is what I posted on their Facebook page:

Northern Rock Nationalisation

This was a disgraceful action by the then Labour Government. The nationalisation was both unnecessary and at a zero valuation so shareholders got nothing. That was contrary to the accepted principles for nationalisation of companies and the enabling Act was written specifically to ensure a nil valuation. Yvette Cooper was the prime mover behind this and is still on the Labour front bench. She and other Labour Party members seemed to want to ensure that the hedge funds that had invested in Northern Rock would get screwed. In addition they wanted to make a profit by acquiring Northern Rock for nothing and later selling it for a profit, which is what subsequently happened.

The nationalisation ensured that international investors would not trust the UK Government which meant they were reluctant to support UK banks and increased their borrowing costs. Altogether a disastrous political and economic decision based only on political dogma.

<END>

Go to the campaigns web site here: https://www.nrsag.co.uk/  or their Facebook page here : https://www.facebook.com/nrsag for their latest news.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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BT Results and Move to Fibre

BT Group (BT.A) announced their final results for the year ending March this morning. The share price is up 11% at the time of writing, perhaps mainly based on the positive comments of the CEO. Although revenue was pretty well unchanged and pre-tax profit fell. EPS was down 55% as was free cash flow. Net debt rose to £19.5bn and the massive pension deficit also increased.

The CEO said: “This delivery and greater capex efficiency gives us the confidence to provide new guidance for significantly increased short term cash flow and sets out a path to more than double our normalised free cash flow over the next five years. This enhanced cash flow allows us to increase our dividend for FY24 by 3.9% to 8.0 pence per share. We’re also setting a further £3bn of gross annualised cost savings to be reached by the end of FY29”.

The dividend increase means the yield is 6.3% on the current share price, which may be one of the few reasons to buy the shares. This is clearly a no growth business. This is the comment made on Stockopedia: “Huge net debt and giant pension contributions mean that the balance sheet has negative NTAV. Should it be paying such generous divis, when it has a mountain of debt?”. My answer would be NO.

The company is moving rapidly to replace its copper wires by fibre-optic cables and coincidentally BT changed our home/office broadband/phone line to fibre yesterday. They did not have to dig up too much of the garden. That went very smoothly so far although the phone line is still not working. Use the Roliscon contact page if you need to get an email to me: https://www.roliscon.com/contact-us

We also have a fibre service from Virgin to support our home TV service and home phone. The TV service suffered from picture break-up for the last three weeks and was only fixed a couple of days ago. I have complained and asked for a subscription refund particularly as they have become too expensive. Alternative suggestions would be welcomed.

Broadband and phone providers have been ratcheting up prices by having automatic increases to match retail price inflation in their contracts which I find unjustifiable as their costs don’t increase in that way.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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The Highest Tax Burden for 80 Years

The TaxPayers’ Alliance has forecast that the tax burden is due to hit an eye-watering 37.1 per cent of GDP by 2028-29. Yes it will be higher than at any time since the Second World War.

The coronavirus pandemic is one cause for the rise in public expenditure but the freezing of allowances has increased personal taxes in real terms as inflation has risen. The rise in social security payments as there are more claims for disability payments has not helped with an ageing population needing more support.

But it is clear that the population, particularly in the big cities, are coming to rely on social security benefits when the incentives to work are poor. Politicians have not got to grips with the negative social trends and if the Labour Party gets elected as the Government this will surely get worse.

See https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/briefing_the_rising_tax_burden for more analysis.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Share Buybacks and a Pattern of Islands

Last week’s Investors Chronicle contained an article that said “The FTSE-100’s record highs have been driven by share buybacks rather than any newfound enthusiasm for UK-listed companies by institutions or DIY investors….”. It suggested that UK funds were still suffering big outflows as investors continued to pile into North American equity funds. I can quite believe it. The herd mentality is clearly in play here.

In the last 3 months the FTSE-100 is up 9% while the FTSE-AIM All-share is up only 3.3%. The expected rebound in small cap shares is still very selective although I have been buying some of them.

I am not travelling much of late but instead I read travel books for some excitement. I reviewed Brazilian Adventure in a previous blog post on the 2nd May. This is a reprint by publishers Eland Publishing Ltd (see https://www.travelbooks.co.uk/ ) who specialise in reprinting old travel books. The latest book from them I have just finished reading is “A Pattern of Islands” by Arthur Grimble. This is the story of someone who joined the colonial services in 1913 as a cadet. He was posted to the Gilbert and Ellice islands with his wife and stayed there for many years, becoming district commissioner in due course. He learned the local language and became an expert on their culture and superstitions.

It’s a marvellous evocation of native life in the South Pacific and the dying days of empire. I recall my parents owned a copy of the book probably from their book club making it a “book of the month”, but I don’t recall reading it before.  

The book contains useful tips on how to survive when the nearest doctor was hundreds of miles and many days distant. You can also learn how to kill an octopus – let it catch you and then bite it in a certain place when it promptly dies.

I recommend it for some summer holiday reading. Yes summer is almost upon us and we will have to start watering the garden soon. My younger grandsons went to the seaside (Herne Bay) yesterday but found the sea very cold as yet so soon gave up paddling.

I hoped to see the Northern Lights last night but they were certainly not obvious – probably too much background light in London. I have seen them before when I visited Michigan.  

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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High Court Rejects Climate Action Plan

Last week the High Court ruled that the Governments climate action plan is unlawful. On several grounds they argued that the Government will not meet its net zero emission targets in a judicial review brought by environmental groups. This is despite the fact that the net zero target has never been put to a popular vote and many people consider it to be both unnecessary and unachievable.

The Government will need to amend its plans.

As a shareholder in oil/gas companies I object very strongly to the law interfering in the sensible policies of companies who are already making strenuous efforts to control emissions. But in reality we need oil/gas production for many years to come otherwise we will all be impoverished for no good reason.

More info: https://www.ft.com/content/f57e608b-f230-44c9-97f8-44c5c60f3ccb

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Share Buybacks Cutting into Dividends?

An article in last week’s Investors Chronicle suggested that the high number of share buybacks was reducing the dividends paid – particularly by FTSE-100 companies. It suggested that there was a “recent frenzy for buybacks among UK listed companies” and I have certainly noticed this myself in my own portfolio holdings. I get very frequent notifications of buybacks as I monitor all RNS announcements from companies in my portfolio.

This is somewhat annoying as I always vote against share buyback, unless there is a very good reason to do otherwise. I would much prefer they reinvested in the business or paid surplus cash out as dividends. Many buybacks are misconceived – often on the notion that they will improve the share price by reducing the number of shares in issue. But that rarely works in practice.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Assisted Dying Debate, London Elections and Book Review

On Monday there was a debate in Parliament on assisted dying – see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5wPhNupqXc . I have been a long- standing supporter of the Voluntary Euthanasia Society – now called Dignity in Dying. It is long overdue for Parliament to change the law so it’s worth listening to the debate. One speaker argued that not only might some people be persuaded to kill themselves by others but they may persuade themselves. That is a most peculiar argument. There was the usual call for palliative care to be improved but relying on that is problematic. When I want to leave this world I don’t want to be blocked by complex rules or laws.

Today we have the elections in London and other regions.   In London other contenders have been catching up on Sadiq Khan according to the latest opinion polls. But he is still likely to win the vote for Mayor as the opposition is split and so many people don’t vote.

So it is extremely important to get out there and vote today!

Personally I have voted for Susan Hall as the only person with a real chance of ousting the liar Sadiq Khan, the destroyer of London’s transport network with his Transport Strategy. But I voted for Reform Party candidates for the other positions. Some tactical voting is the order of the day.

For lighter entertainment, I have just finished reading the book Brazilian Adventure by Peter Fleming (brother of James Bond author Ian Fleming). This is was first published in 1933 and is ostensibly the story of a search for Colonel Fawcett who disappeared in the Amazon jungle 7 years previously. But in reality it’s the ripping yarn of a few young and inexperienced men seeking adventure.

It’s well written, brings the milieu to life and therefore is recommended. Here’s one sentence from it: “The sun had just risen. It’s light no more than grazed the world, gilding the crests of ridges, from the blue hollows between them picking our little save the tallest trees and the wisps of vapour which hung wherever there was water.”  

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Alliance Trust AGM 2024 Report

I attended the Annual General Meeting of Alliance Trust (ATST) this morning using the Lumi AGM platform. It was physically held in Dundee which is their traditional location and they intend to continue with that in future apparently.

The Lumi platform normally works well although there was a hiccup during the Chairman’s introduction and I had to log in again.

I have held shares in this trust since 2015 and am very happy with recent performance.  The Chairman, Dean Buckley, reported a “very strong investment performance” last year – total return up 21.6% and significantly better than their benchmark plus better than their competitors. Good performance has continued in 2024. The trust has increased dividends for 57 years and the discount to NAV is only 5.4% and heading down.

Craig gave an overview of their investment approach – a global stock picking based on “high conviction” choices but diversified. They were underweight the “magnificent 7” technology stocks last year but that was offset by good performance in other holdings.

I will only report on the question I asked which was “According to page 9 of the Annual Report you seem to be selling the winners and increasing exposure to losers. Please comment as this is contrary to my investment philosophy”. The answer given was that “Individual stock pickers may have different views on this. But it only applies to stock pickers overall performance. It is just a matter of rebalancing the portfolio, avoids a big bias to growth and helps manage risk while lowering volatility.

Comment: It seems to work.

The meeting was well organised and managed by the Chairman. I am happy to continue holding the shares as a foundation holding which I don’t have to continually monitor. As their Annual Report says “Our ready-made portfolio does all the hard work for you….We provide a simple, high-quality way to invest in global equities at a competitive cost”.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Lords Debate on NHS Sustainability

Last week I wrote a blog post on “The NHS is killing us” – see https://roliscon.blog/2024/04/12/the-nhs-is-killing-us/ . Last night I had a dialysis session and after watching a couple of old movies I turned over to the BBC Parliament Channel and was surprised to see my sister (Baroness Murphy) speaking on a debate on NHS sustainability – recording here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001yg9p/house-of-lords-sustainability-of-the-nhs?seriesId=unsliced&page=1 .

She made a good contribution and there were several others. Often from people very knowledgeable about the NHS (for example by sister worked in it for many years and latterly chaired an NHS trust).

Many people think the House of Lords should be replaced by an elected body or similar but it actually does good work as it’s now full of people who are expert in their fields. Perhaps the hereditary peers should go but otherwise I would leave it unchanged.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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